Tesla posted delivery estimates on December 31, 2025, revealing lower-than-expected sales figures and signaling a slower year for vehicle deliveries. Another change in the way the company expressed its expectations was the release of analyst forecasts publicly – an uncommon practice.
In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles. That was a 13% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The figure missed investor forecasts and showed weaker demand during the early part of the year.
Tesla also shared delivery projections for the fourth quarter on its website. The company published an average analyst estimate of 422,850 vehicles, which would be a 15% drop from the previous year.
Bloomberg data puts the average higher, at 440,907 units — an 11% year-over-year decrease. Publishing this data publicly is a change from Tesla’s usual approach, as these figures were previously shared only with select investors and analysts.
Year-End Totals Point to Ongoing Slowdown
Tesla’s internal estimate suggests full-year deliveries will reach around 1.6 million vehicles in 2025. That would mark an 8% drop from the year before and confirm a second straight annual decline.
The slowdown comes after Tesla paused production at key factories to upgrade assembly lines for the refreshed Model Y. That vehicle remains its best-selling model. The production changes limited output during the first half of the year. The decline also came as consumer demand shifted and new competitors entered the EV market.
Share Movement and Sales Response
Tesla stock fell by as much as 1.3% after the delivery outlook was released but recovered later in the day. As of Monday’s close, Tesla shares were still up 14% for the year. The S&P 500 index gained 17% in the same period.
To boost sales after tax credits expired in the U.S., Tesla introduced new versions of the Model Y and Model 3 priced under $40,000. These models were aimed at attracting budget-focused buyers following the end of the $7,500 federal credit in late September. The change helped lift third-quarter sales to a record level.
In addition, the delivery update comes just days after Tesla reached another production milestone. Its nine-millionth car was manufactured in Shanghai Gigafactory, which is still one of the most productive facilities of the company. Nearly half of all Teslas made so far came from that location.
Tesla also continued to face scrutiny in 2025. The involvement of the CEO, Elon Musk, in politics in the U.S. attracted the attention during the year. Combined with changes in factory output and market demand, those factors shaped Tesla’s position in an increasingly competitive EV industry.
